Myosteatosis predicting risk of transition to severe COVID-19 infection.

BACKGROUND: About 10-20% of patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection progressed to severe illness within a week or so after initially diagnosed as mild infection. Identification of this subgroup of patients was crucial for early aggressive intervention to improve survival. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether computer tomography (CT) - derived measurements of body composition such as myosteatosis indicating fat deposition inside the muscles could be used to predict the risk of transition to severe illness in patients with initial diagnosis of mild COVID-19 infection. METHODS: Patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection presenting initially as having the mild common-subtype illness were retrospectively recruited between January 21, 2020 and February 19, 2020. CT-derived body composition measurements were obtained from the initial chest CT images at the level of the twelfth thoracic vertebra (T12) and were used to build models to predict the risk of transition. A myosteatosis nomogram was constructed using multivariate logistic regression incorporating both clinical variables and myosteatosis measurements. The performance of the prediction models was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve including the area under the curve (AUC). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curve, and decision curve. RESULTS: A total of 234 patients were included in this study. Thirty-one of the enrolled patients transitioned to severe illness. Myosteatosis measurements including SM-RA (skeletal muscle radiation attenuation) and SMFI (skeletal muscle fat index) score fitted with SMFI, age and gender, were significantly associated with risk of transition for both the training and validation cohorts (P < 0.01). The nomogram combining the SM-RA, SMFI score and clinical model improved prediction for the transition risk with an AUC of 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.95] for the training cohort and 0.84 [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.97] for the validation cohort, as compared to the nomogram of the clinical model with AUC of 0.75 and 0.74 for the training and validation cohorts respectively. Favorable clinical utility was observed using decision curve analysis. CONCLUSION: We found CT-derived measurements of thoracic myosteatosis to be associated with higher risk of transition to severe illness in patients affected by COVID-19 who presented initially as having the mild common-subtype infection. Our study showed the relevance of skeletal muscle examination in the overall assessment of disease progression and prognosis of patients with COVID-19 infection.

A Novel Machine Learning-derived Radiomic Signature of the Whole Lung Differentiates Stable From Progressive COVID-19 Infection: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use the radiomics signatures of a machine learning-based tool to evaluate the prognosis of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. METHODS: The clinical and imaging data of 64 patients with confirmed diagnoses of COVID-19 were retrospectively selected and divided into a stable group and a progressive group according to the data obtained from the ongoing treatment process. Imaging features from whole-lung images from baseline computed tomography (CT) scans were extracted and dimensionality reduction was performed. Support vector machines were used to construct radiomics signatures and to compare differences between the 2 groups. We also compared the differences of signature scores in the clinical, laboratory, and CT image feature subgroups and finally analyzed the correlation between the radiomics features of the constructed signature and the other features including clinical, laboratory, and CT imaging features. RESULTS: The signature has a good classification effect for the stable group and the progressive group, with area under curve, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.833, 80.95%, and 74.42%, respectively. Signature score differences in laboratory and CT imaging features between subgroups were not statistically significant (P>0.05); cough was negatively correlated with GLCM Entropy_angle 90_offset4 (r=-0.578), but was positively correlated with ShortRunEmphhasis_AllDirect_offset4_SD (r=0.454); C-reactive protein was positively correlated with Cluster Prominence_ AllDirect_offset 4_ SD (r=0.47). CONCLUSION: The radiomics signature of the whole lung based on machine learning may reveal the changes of lung microstructure in the early stage and help to indicate the progression of the disease.

Differentiating pneumonia with and without COVID-19 using chest CT images: from qualitative to quantitative.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia caused by COVID-19 shares overlapping imaging manifestations with other types of pneumonia. How to objectively and quantitatively differentiate pneumonia patients with and without COVID-19 virus remains clinical challenge. OBJECTIVE: To formulate standardized scoring criteria and an objective quantization standard to guide decision making in detection and diagnosis of COVID-19 virus induced pneumonia in clinical practice. METHODS: A retrospective dataset includes computed tomography (CT) images acquired from 43 pneumonia patients with COVID-19 virus detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests and 49 pneumonia patients without COVID-19 virus. All patients were treated during the same time period in two hospitals. Key indicators of differential diagnosis were identified in relevant literature and the scores were quantified namely, patients with more than 8 points were identified as high risk, those with 6-8 points as moderate risk, and those with fewer than 6 points as low risk for COVID-19 virus. In the study, 3 radiologists determined the scores for all patients. Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were subsequently calculated. RESULTS: A total of 61 patients were determined as high risk, among which 42 were COVID-19 positive by RT-PCR tests. Next, 9 were identified as moderate risk, one of whom was COVID-19 positive. Last, 22 were classified into the low-risk group, all of them are COVID-19 negative. Based on these results, the sensitivity of detection COVID-19 positive cases between the high-risk group and the non-high-risk group was 0.98 with 95% confidence interval [0.88, 1.00], and the specificity was 0.61 [0.46, 0.75]. The detection sensitivity between the moderate-/high-risk group and the low-risk group was 1.00 [0.92, 1.00], and the specificity was 0.45 [0.31, 0.60]. CONCLUSION: The proposed quantitative scoring criteria showed high sensitivity and moderate specificity in detecting COVID-19 using CT images, which indicates that these criteria may be beneficial for screening in real-world practice and helpful for long-term disease control.